I'm currently in post-production on a proof-of-concept for my science fiction project. We started developing the project and shot a short film back in the pre-Covid era, after which there was a long pause. That’s why I became curious: how has the market changed since 2019, and what are the trends and forecasts for the coming years?
Global Box Office for Sci-Fi Films
In 2019, science fiction films peaked globally with approximately $10 billion in worldwide box office revenue, largely driven by Marvel and Star Wars releases. The pandemic year 2020 caused a sharp drop: theater closures reduced global grosses to about $1.4 billion. In 2021–2022, the market began recovering: major releases like Spider-Man: No Way Home, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Jurassic World Dominion helped restore annual totals to $8–9 billion. In 2023, the total was around $6–7 billion. So the industry nearly returned to its pre-Covid scale, though the revenue structure changed.
From 2019 to 2023, big brands and sequels consistently led the box office, while original stories rarely crossed the billion-dollar mark. An exception was the independent sci-fi action film Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022) by A24, which became a global hit with $141 million on a modest $25 million budget and won 7 Academy Awards. It’s also worth noting that mid-budget sci-fi struggled at the box office in 2023 — a prime example being the failure of the original film The Creator. One notable exception proving the potential of inventive sci-fi was the indie-style dark comedy Poor Things (2023, A24/Searchlight): despite a quirky premise and a moderate $35M budget, it became a global success with $117+ million and swept major awards.
In 2024–2025, major sequels drove this surge – Deadpool & Wolverine ($1.338 billion globally) led all releases, while Dune: Part Two brought in $715 million and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire topped $572 million. By 2025 the trend held strong: Jurassic World Rebirth earned $869 million and DC’s new Superman film soared past $616 million globally. Even Avatar: Fire and Ash (the third Avatar installment) amassed $450 million in just its late-2025 opening weeks. Disney’s big-budget sci-fi Tron: Ares (2025) fizzled with only $142 million – echoing 2023’s The Creator flop – and even acclaimed auteur projects saw modest returns. Bong Joon-ho’s original dystopia Mickey 17 made $133 million. By December 2025, the sci-fi genre’s annual grosses were nearly back to their 2019 peak, indicating a full industrial recovery in revenue terms at roughly $6–7 billion for the year.
Cinemas vs. Streaming
In 2021, there was pent-up demand: when theaters reopened, audiences flocked to the biggest releases like Spider-Man: No Way Home and Avatar 2. Still, the pandemic changed the distribution model: the window between theatrical release and streaming shortened. Audiences became more selective — for mid-level films without premium IP, theater attendance dropped.
Going forward, sci-fi is expected to remain a dominant force in cinema, but the genre’s character will shift. The biggest revenues will still come from Disney (Marvel, Star Wars, Avatar, Alien), Universal (Jurassic), and Warner Bros. (DC, The Matrix, Dune). These studios deliver “event” films that justify going to the theater. At the same time, a divide is growing: some sci-fi will go directly to streaming platforms (especially niche or experimental projects), while theatrical releases will need to be either massive spectacles or feature distinct auteur voices. This divergence is already visible — and in my opinion, it will shape the genre between 2026 and 2028.
What do you think? What will we see in theaters versus on streaming?
4 people like this
Imola Orbán, I love that! Shorts and features really do have different rhythms. Starting momentum at the shoot for shorts makes total sense. For features, especially festival films, the premiere can b...
Expand commentImola Orbán, I love that! Shorts and features really do have different rhythms. Starting momentum at the shoot for shorts makes total sense. For features, especially festival films, the premiere can be the perfect ignition point. I still believe there’s value in planting a few seeds earlier, even at the script stage, but every project finds its own path.
3 people like this
That’s wonderful, Meriem Bouziani! Excitement is one of the best reasons to start sharing early; it helps you build connection and momentum from the very beginning. If you’d like, feel free to share y...
Expand commentThat’s wonderful, Meriem Bouziani! Excitement is one of the best reasons to start sharing early; it helps you build connection and momentum from the very beginning. If you’d like, feel free to share your Instagram link so we can follow your journey. This is Marketing :))
3 people like this
Absolutely, Eon C. Rambally, that’s exactly it. Strong concepts thrive because they’re built with intention from the very beginning. Let’s carry that mindset into 2026 and beyond, with projects that g...
Expand commentAbsolutely, Eon C. Rambally, that’s exactly it. Strong concepts thrive because they’re built with intention from the very beginning. Let’s carry that mindset into 2026 and beyond, with projects that grow because we nurture them early and consistently :))
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Likewise Sydney S. I’d love to read the book. I’ll go look for it :)) Thanks for the reminder, beautiful.
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That’s a great idea, here is my Instagram.
https://www.instagram.com/sci.fi.spy24?igsh=dGhwcjU1N2RqNWV6...
Expand commentThank you very much Sandra Isabel Correia
That’s a great idea, here is my Instagram.
https://www.instagram.com/sci.fi.spy24?igsh=dGhwcjU1N2RqNWV6