I'm currently in post-production on a proof-of-concept for my science fiction project. We started developing the project and shot a short film back in the pre-Covid era, after which there was a long pause. That’s why I became curious: how has the market changed since 2019, and what are the trends and forecasts for the coming years?
Global Box Office for Sci-Fi Films
In 2019, science fiction films peaked globally with approximately $10 billion in worldwide box office revenue, largely driven by Marvel and Star Wars releases. The pandemic year 2020 caused a sharp drop: theater closures reduced global grosses to about $1.4 billion. In 2021–2022, the market began recovering: major releases like Spider-Man: No Way Home, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Jurassic World Dominion helped restore annual totals to $8–9 billion. In 2023, the total was around $6–7 billion. So the industry nearly returned to its pre-Covid scale, though the revenue structure changed.
From 2019 to 2023, big brands and sequels consistently led the box office, while original stories rarely crossed the billion-dollar mark. An exception was the independent sci-fi action film Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022) by A24, which became a global hit with $141 million on a modest $25 million budget and won 7 Academy Awards. It’s also worth noting that mid-budget sci-fi struggled at the box office in 2023 — a prime example being the failure of the original film The Creator. One notable exception proving the potential of inventive sci-fi was the indie-style dark comedy Poor Things (2023, A24/Searchlight): despite a quirky premise and a moderate $35M budget, it became a global success with $117+ million and swept major awards.
In 2024–2025, major sequels drove this surge – Deadpool & Wolverine ($1.338 billion globally) led all releases, while Dune: Part Two brought in $715 million and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire topped $572 million. By 2025 the trend held strong: Jurassic World Rebirth earned $869 million and DC’s new Superman film soared past $616 million globally. Even Avatar: Fire and Ash (the third Avatar installment) amassed $450 million in just its late-2025 opening weeks. Disney’s big-budget sci-fi Tron: Ares (2025) fizzled with only $142 million – echoing 2023’s The Creator flop – and even acclaimed auteur projects saw modest returns. Bong Joon-ho’s original dystopia Mickey 17 made $133 million. By December 2025, the sci-fi genre’s annual grosses were nearly back to their 2019 peak, indicating a full industrial recovery in revenue terms at roughly $6–7 billion for the year.
Cinemas vs. Streaming
In 2021, there was pent-up demand: when theaters reopened, audiences flocked to the biggest releases like Spider-Man: No Way Home and Avatar 2. Still, the pandemic changed the distribution model: the window between theatrical release and streaming shortened. Audiences became more selective — for mid-level films without premium IP, theater attendance dropped.
Going forward, sci-fi is expected to remain a dominant force in cinema, but the genre’s character will shift. The biggest revenues will still come from Disney (Marvel, Star Wars, Avatar, Alien), Universal (Jurassic), and Warner Bros. (DC, The Matrix, Dune). These studios deliver “event” films that justify going to the theater. At the same time, a divide is growing: some sci-fi will go directly to streaming platforms (especially niche or experimental projects), while theatrical releases will need to be either massive spectacles or feature distinct auteur voices. This divergence is already visible — and in my opinion, it will shape the genre between 2026 and 2028.
What do you think? What will we see in theaters versus on streaming?
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I’d say you’re spot on about the cycle. Funding slows everything down, and when budgets are tight, promotion becomes its own uphill battle. What I’ve learned is that indie creators end up wearing ten...
Expand commentI’d say you’re spot on about the cycle. Funding slows everything down, and when budgets are tight, promotion becomes its own uphill battle. What I’ve learned is that indie creators end up wearing ten hats: filmmaker, marketer, strategist, hype squad. It’s exhausting, but also kind of the game right now.
For me, the only workaround has been consistency. Even when the money isn’t flowing, the visibility has to. Promotion is slow magic. It stacks over time, even when it feels like nobody’s watching.
I also think it’s okay to grow later than others. The people who “pop” fast usually had resources behind them that weren’t visible. For the rest of us, it’s a marathon built on patience, community, and showing up even when it feels like you’re shouting into the void.
That’s been my experience so far.
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Dave Cj What are your answers to promotion?
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Having a creative marketing campaign can help, Dave Cj. It doesn't have to cost a lot of money, like a social media game that ties into the movie. Maybe give the people who win movie tickets, digital...
Expand commentHaving a creative marketing campaign can help, Dave Cj. It doesn't have to cost a lot of money, like a social media game that ties into the movie. Maybe give the people who win movie tickets, digital copies of the script, etc.
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Hey :) I recently discussed this topic with a director client of mine. He wasn't sure whether having a poster was important to promote his short film, and whether the image gpt created would be enough...
Expand commentHey :) I recently discussed this topic with a director client of mine. He wasn't sure whether having a poster was important to promote his short film, and whether the image gpt created would be enough. When I explained the various critical issues and saw my work, he understood the value of a critical eye in promoting a videographer's work. It doesn't take much, but for now, it's important to enhance your film with something that highlights its uniqueness, not something banal and obvious like so many others.
To write this answer I relied on the online translator since ENG it is not my first language, I apologize for any typing/mistakes :)